Competing risk factor analysis of end-stage renal disease and mortality in chronic kidney disease

Rajiv Agarwal, Zerihun Bunaye, Dagim M. Bekele, Robert P. Light

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

43 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background: Death and dialysis are competing outcomes in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). The factors associated with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) versus death in this population are unknown. The purpose of our study was to evaluate the competing risk of ESRD versus mortality and to evaluate the risk factors associated with these two outcomes. Methods: We prospectively recruited 220 consecutive patients at a Veterans Administration Medical Center attending a renal clinic who met the definition of CKD (estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <60 ml/min/1.73 m2 or urine protein/creatinine ratio of >0.22 g/g). Using age, race, proteinuria, eGFR, systolic blood pressure, and coronary artery disease as predictors, we calculated the competing end-points of ESRD or death using a competing Cox regression model. Results: The cumulative incidence for ESRD was 17.6% and death 18.5% during follow-up that lasted up to 7 years. ESRD was predicted by younger age (hazard ratio (HR) 0.91/year), black race (HR 2.75), higher systolic blood pressure (HR 1.02/mm Hg), proteinuria (HR 1.37/log urine protein/creatinine ratio) and low eGFR (0.014/log eGFR ml/min/1.73 m2). Death was predicted by older age (HR 1.07/year), lower eGFR (HR 0.43/log eGFR ml/min/1.73 m2), proteinuria (HR 1.26/log urine protein/creatinine ratio) and coronary artery disease (HR 2.52). The coefficients were statistically different for age (p < 0.001), log eGFR (p < 0.001) and systolic blood pressure (p = 0.04) for ESRD and death outcomes. Conclusions: The risk for mortality is similar to the risk of ESRD in the CKD population of veterans seen by nephrologists. Risk factors for ESRD and death appear to differ in this population. Certain clinical and demographic factors may discriminate between the end-points of death or dialysis and may influence decisions about planning for ESRD.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)569-575
Number of pages7
JournalAmerican Journal of Nephrology
Volume28
Issue number4
DOIs
StatePublished - Jun 2008

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Chronic Renal Insufficiency
Statistical Factor Analysis
Chronic Kidney Failure
Glomerular Filtration Rate
Mortality
Blood Pressure
Proteinuria
Coronary Artery Disease
Dialysis
Creatinine
Urine
Population
United States Department of Veterans Affairs
Veterans
Proportional Hazards Models
Proteins
Demography
Hypertension
Kidney
Incidence

Keywords

  • Coronary artery disease
  • End-stage renal disease
  • Mortality
  • Proteinuria
  • Systolic blood pressure

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Nephrology

Cite this

Competing risk factor analysis of end-stage renal disease and mortality in chronic kidney disease. / Agarwal, Rajiv; Bunaye, Zerihun; Bekele, Dagim M.; Light, Robert P.

In: American Journal of Nephrology, Vol. 28, No. 4, 06.2008, p. 569-575.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Agarwal, Rajiv ; Bunaye, Zerihun ; Bekele, Dagim M. ; Light, Robert P. / Competing risk factor analysis of end-stage renal disease and mortality in chronic kidney disease. In: American Journal of Nephrology. 2008 ; Vol. 28, No. 4. pp. 569-575.
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N2 - Background: Death and dialysis are competing outcomes in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). The factors associated with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) versus death in this population are unknown. The purpose of our study was to evaluate the competing risk of ESRD versus mortality and to evaluate the risk factors associated with these two outcomes. Methods: We prospectively recruited 220 consecutive patients at a Veterans Administration Medical Center attending a renal clinic who met the definition of CKD (estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <60 ml/min/1.73 m2 or urine protein/creatinine ratio of >0.22 g/g). Using age, race, proteinuria, eGFR, systolic blood pressure, and coronary artery disease as predictors, we calculated the competing end-points of ESRD or death using a competing Cox regression model. Results: The cumulative incidence for ESRD was 17.6% and death 18.5% during follow-up that lasted up to 7 years. ESRD was predicted by younger age (hazard ratio (HR) 0.91/year), black race (HR 2.75), higher systolic blood pressure (HR 1.02/mm Hg), proteinuria (HR 1.37/log urine protein/creatinine ratio) and low eGFR (0.014/log eGFR ml/min/1.73 m2). Death was predicted by older age (HR 1.07/year), lower eGFR (HR 0.43/log eGFR ml/min/1.73 m2), proteinuria (HR 1.26/log urine protein/creatinine ratio) and coronary artery disease (HR 2.52). The coefficients were statistically different for age (p < 0.001), log eGFR (p < 0.001) and systolic blood pressure (p = 0.04) for ESRD and death outcomes. Conclusions: The risk for mortality is similar to the risk of ESRD in the CKD population of veterans seen by nephrologists. Risk factors for ESRD and death appear to differ in this population. Certain clinical and demographic factors may discriminate between the end-points of death or dialysis and may influence decisions about planning for ESRD.

AB - Background: Death and dialysis are competing outcomes in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). The factors associated with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) versus death in this population are unknown. The purpose of our study was to evaluate the competing risk of ESRD versus mortality and to evaluate the risk factors associated with these two outcomes. Methods: We prospectively recruited 220 consecutive patients at a Veterans Administration Medical Center attending a renal clinic who met the definition of CKD (estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <60 ml/min/1.73 m2 or urine protein/creatinine ratio of >0.22 g/g). Using age, race, proteinuria, eGFR, systolic blood pressure, and coronary artery disease as predictors, we calculated the competing end-points of ESRD or death using a competing Cox regression model. Results: The cumulative incidence for ESRD was 17.6% and death 18.5% during follow-up that lasted up to 7 years. ESRD was predicted by younger age (hazard ratio (HR) 0.91/year), black race (HR 2.75), higher systolic blood pressure (HR 1.02/mm Hg), proteinuria (HR 1.37/log urine protein/creatinine ratio) and low eGFR (0.014/log eGFR ml/min/1.73 m2). Death was predicted by older age (HR 1.07/year), lower eGFR (HR 0.43/log eGFR ml/min/1.73 m2), proteinuria (HR 1.26/log urine protein/creatinine ratio) and coronary artery disease (HR 2.52). The coefficients were statistically different for age (p < 0.001), log eGFR (p < 0.001) and systolic blood pressure (p = 0.04) for ESRD and death outcomes. Conclusions: The risk for mortality is similar to the risk of ESRD in the CKD population of veterans seen by nephrologists. Risk factors for ESRD and death appear to differ in this population. Certain clinical and demographic factors may discriminate between the end-points of death or dialysis and may influence decisions about planning for ESRD.

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