Growth of screen-detected abdominal aortic aneurysms in men: A bayesian analysis

E. A. Sherer, Robert Bies, P. Clancy, P. E. Norman, J. Golledge

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

There is considerable interindividual variability in the growth of abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs), but an individual's growth observations, risk factors, and biomarkers could potentially be used to tailor surveillance. To assess the potential for tailoring surveillance, this study determined the accuracy of individualized predictions of AAA size at the next surveillance observation. A hierarchical Bayesian model was fitted to a total of 1,732 serial ultrasound measurements from 299 men in whom ultrasound screening identified an AAA. The data were best described by a nonlinear model with a constant first derivative of the AAA growth rate with size. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for predicting whether an AAA was ≥40 or ≥50 mm at the next observation were 0.922 and 0.979, respectively, and the median root mean squared error was 2.52 mm. These values were nearly identical for models with or without plasma D-dimer effects.

Original languageEnglish
Article numbere12
JournalCPT: Pharmacometrics and Systems Pharmacology
Volume1
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - 2012

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Aneurysm
Bayes Theorem
Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm
Bayesian Analysis
Surveillance
Growth
Ultrasonics
Ultrasound
Biomarkers
Dimers
Observation
Hierarchical Bayesian Model
Screening
Nonlinear Dynamics
Derivatives
Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve
Plasmas
Dimer
Risk Factors
Mean Squared Error

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine

Cite this

Growth of screen-detected abdominal aortic aneurysms in men : A bayesian analysis. / Sherer, E. A.; Bies, Robert; Clancy, P.; Norman, P. E.; Golledge, J.

In: CPT: Pharmacometrics and Systems Pharmacology, Vol. 1, No. 1, e12, 2012.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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