Linking changes in eastern Bering Sea jellyfish populations to environmental factors via nonlinear time series models

Mary Beth Decker, Hai Liu, Lorenzo Ciannelli, Carol Ladd, Wei Cheng, Kung Sik Chan

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

7 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

ABSTRACT: The Bering Sea ecosystem has experienced significant climatic and biological shifts over the past 3 decades, including temporal and spatial fluctuations of jellyfish biomass. Jellyfish are important predators and competitors of fish; thus, it is critical to understand the effects of environmental factors on their population dynamics. We explored the effects of ocean bottom temperatures and circulation on jellyfish populations using a non-parametric, nonlinear multiple time series analysis of a 23 yr dataset. The study area was divided into 3 subregions that reflected distinct jellyfish catches and distributions. Aggregations and the influence of temperature and circulation on jellyfish biomass were found to differ in each of the 3 subregions. The northern region biomass was affected by central biomass, mediated by the strength of advection from the central region. In both the northern and central regions, current-year biomass was associated with lag-1 biomass, but was mediated by local bottom temperatures (colder temperatures strengthened the relationship with lag-1 biomass). However, in the central region, this relationship held only for the period after 1997. Prior to 1997, advection from the southern region drove central region biomass, suggesting that the primary source of jellyfish biomass to the central eastern Bering Sea shelf changed, coming from the southern shelf before 1997 and from the central shelf after 1997. The southern jellyfish biomass was affected by only the lag-1 southern jellyfish biomass. Transport from the south may have seeded the central region in the early 1990s, but once established, jellyfish polyp populations near islands in the central region may have supplied the area with medusae in the late 1990s.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)179-189
Number of pages11
JournalMarine Ecology Progress Series
Volume494
DOIs
StatePublished - Dec 4 2013

Fingerprint

jellyfish
Bering Sea
Scyphozoa
time series analysis
environmental factor
time series
environmental factors
biomass
temperature
advection
sea
polyp
shelf sea
population dynamics
seafloor
oceans
predator

Keywords

  • Biophysical conditions
  • Climate change
  • Scyphomedusae
  • Time series

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Aquatic Science
  • Ecology
  • Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics

Cite this

Linking changes in eastern Bering Sea jellyfish populations to environmental factors via nonlinear time series models. / Decker, Mary Beth; Liu, Hai; Ciannelli, Lorenzo; Ladd, Carol; Cheng, Wei; Chan, Kung Sik.

In: Marine Ecology Progress Series, Vol. 494, 04.12.2013, p. 179-189.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Decker, Mary Beth ; Liu, Hai ; Ciannelli, Lorenzo ; Ladd, Carol ; Cheng, Wei ; Chan, Kung Sik. / Linking changes in eastern Bering Sea jellyfish populations to environmental factors via nonlinear time series models. In: Marine Ecology Progress Series. 2013 ; Vol. 494. pp. 179-189.
@article{1526b96062f547b7a0e0cebb1bf3dc4c,
title = "Linking changes in eastern Bering Sea jellyfish populations to environmental factors via nonlinear time series models",
abstract = "ABSTRACT: The Bering Sea ecosystem has experienced significant climatic and biological shifts over the past 3 decades, including temporal and spatial fluctuations of jellyfish biomass. Jellyfish are important predators and competitors of fish; thus, it is critical to understand the effects of environmental factors on their population dynamics. We explored the effects of ocean bottom temperatures and circulation on jellyfish populations using a non-parametric, nonlinear multiple time series analysis of a 23 yr dataset. The study area was divided into 3 subregions that reflected distinct jellyfish catches and distributions. Aggregations and the influence of temperature and circulation on jellyfish biomass were found to differ in each of the 3 subregions. The northern region biomass was affected by central biomass, mediated by the strength of advection from the central region. In both the northern and central regions, current-year biomass was associated with lag-1 biomass, but was mediated by local bottom temperatures (colder temperatures strengthened the relationship with lag-1 biomass). However, in the central region, this relationship held only for the period after 1997. Prior to 1997, advection from the southern region drove central region biomass, suggesting that the primary source of jellyfish biomass to the central eastern Bering Sea shelf changed, coming from the southern shelf before 1997 and from the central shelf after 1997. The southern jellyfish biomass was affected by only the lag-1 southern jellyfish biomass. Transport from the south may have seeded the central region in the early 1990s, but once established, jellyfish polyp populations near islands in the central region may have supplied the area with medusae in the late 1990s.",
keywords = "Biophysical conditions, Climate change, Scyphomedusae, Time series",
author = "Decker, {Mary Beth} and Hai Liu and Lorenzo Ciannelli and Carol Ladd and Wei Cheng and Chan, {Kung Sik}",
year = "2013",
month = "12",
day = "4",
doi = "10.3354/meps10545",
language = "English",
volume = "494",
pages = "179--189",
journal = "Marine Ecology - Progress Series",
issn = "0171-8630",
publisher = "Inter-Research",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Linking changes in eastern Bering Sea jellyfish populations to environmental factors via nonlinear time series models

AU - Decker, Mary Beth

AU - Liu, Hai

AU - Ciannelli, Lorenzo

AU - Ladd, Carol

AU - Cheng, Wei

AU - Chan, Kung Sik

PY - 2013/12/4

Y1 - 2013/12/4

N2 - ABSTRACT: The Bering Sea ecosystem has experienced significant climatic and biological shifts over the past 3 decades, including temporal and spatial fluctuations of jellyfish biomass. Jellyfish are important predators and competitors of fish; thus, it is critical to understand the effects of environmental factors on their population dynamics. We explored the effects of ocean bottom temperatures and circulation on jellyfish populations using a non-parametric, nonlinear multiple time series analysis of a 23 yr dataset. The study area was divided into 3 subregions that reflected distinct jellyfish catches and distributions. Aggregations and the influence of temperature and circulation on jellyfish biomass were found to differ in each of the 3 subregions. The northern region biomass was affected by central biomass, mediated by the strength of advection from the central region. In both the northern and central regions, current-year biomass was associated with lag-1 biomass, but was mediated by local bottom temperatures (colder temperatures strengthened the relationship with lag-1 biomass). However, in the central region, this relationship held only for the period after 1997. Prior to 1997, advection from the southern region drove central region biomass, suggesting that the primary source of jellyfish biomass to the central eastern Bering Sea shelf changed, coming from the southern shelf before 1997 and from the central shelf after 1997. The southern jellyfish biomass was affected by only the lag-1 southern jellyfish biomass. Transport from the south may have seeded the central region in the early 1990s, but once established, jellyfish polyp populations near islands in the central region may have supplied the area with medusae in the late 1990s.

AB - ABSTRACT: The Bering Sea ecosystem has experienced significant climatic and biological shifts over the past 3 decades, including temporal and spatial fluctuations of jellyfish biomass. Jellyfish are important predators and competitors of fish; thus, it is critical to understand the effects of environmental factors on their population dynamics. We explored the effects of ocean bottom temperatures and circulation on jellyfish populations using a non-parametric, nonlinear multiple time series analysis of a 23 yr dataset. The study area was divided into 3 subregions that reflected distinct jellyfish catches and distributions. Aggregations and the influence of temperature and circulation on jellyfish biomass were found to differ in each of the 3 subregions. The northern region biomass was affected by central biomass, mediated by the strength of advection from the central region. In both the northern and central regions, current-year biomass was associated with lag-1 biomass, but was mediated by local bottom temperatures (colder temperatures strengthened the relationship with lag-1 biomass). However, in the central region, this relationship held only for the period after 1997. Prior to 1997, advection from the southern region drove central region biomass, suggesting that the primary source of jellyfish biomass to the central eastern Bering Sea shelf changed, coming from the southern shelf before 1997 and from the central shelf after 1997. The southern jellyfish biomass was affected by only the lag-1 southern jellyfish biomass. Transport from the south may have seeded the central region in the early 1990s, but once established, jellyfish polyp populations near islands in the central region may have supplied the area with medusae in the late 1990s.

KW - Biophysical conditions

KW - Climate change

KW - Scyphomedusae

KW - Time series

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84889665862&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84889665862&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.3354/meps10545

DO - 10.3354/meps10545

M3 - Article

VL - 494

SP - 179

EP - 189

JO - Marine Ecology - Progress Series

JF - Marine Ecology - Progress Series

SN - 0171-8630

ER -