Prediction of coronary artery disease risk based on multiple longitudinal biomarkers

Lili Yang, Menggang Yu, Sujuan Gao

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

11 Scopus citations


In the last decade, few topics in the area of cardiovascular disease (CVD) research have received as much attention as risk prediction. One of the well-documented risk factors for CVD is high blood pressure (BP). Traditional CVD risk prediction models consider BP levels measured at a single time and such models form the basis for current clinical guidelines for CVD prevention. However, in clinical practice, BP levels are often observed and recorded in a longitudinal fashion. Information on BP trajectories can be powerful predictors for CVD events. We consider joint modeling of time to coronary artery disease and individual longitudinal measures of systolic and diastolic BPs in a primary care cohort with up to 20 years of follow-up. We applied novel prediction metrics to assess the predictive performance of joint models. Predictive performances of proposed joint models and other models were assessed via simulations and illustrated using the primary care cohort.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1299-1314
Number of pages16
JournalStatistics in Medicine
Issue number8
StatePublished - Apr 15 2016


  • AARD
  • AUC
  • Joint models
  • MRD
  • Multiple longitudinal outcomes
  • Prediction
  • Time-to-event outcome

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Epidemiology
  • Statistics and Probability

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