Predictors of coronal caries progression in adults: Results from the Prevention of Adult Caries Study

Mabi Singh, Athena Papas, William Vollmer, James Bader, Reesa Laws, Gerardo Maupome, John Snyder, Peter Blanchard

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

1 Scopus citations


Objectives This secondary analysis of data from the Prevention of Adult Caries Study (PACS) assesses risk factors for progression of coronal caries. Methods Participants (n = 983) were adults at increased caries risk with at least one cavitated and one noncavitated lesions who were enrolled in a randomized clinical trial to test the effect of a 10% w/v chlorhexidine varnish coating on caries progression. Calibrated examiners scored tooth surfaces using a modified International Caries Detection and Assessment System (ICDAS) classification at baseline and at 7 and 13 months postrandomization. Potential baseline predictors of caries risk were used in adjusted negative binomial regression models to predict net D2FS increment and in linear regression models to predict the rank-normalized net D12FS increment. Results Mean (SD) D2FS and D12FS increments were and 2.4 (3.1) and 2.1 (6.9), respectively. In multivariate analyses, two or more baseline D2 lesions, consumption of acidic drinks, and increasing age were all significantly associated with increased D2FS and D12FS risk. Daily flossing also was associated with increased D2FS risk. More frequent dental care at baseline was associated with significantly decreased caries risk for both increments. Conclusions The general concordance of risk factors in the D12FS and D2FS models lends support to the hypothesis that the D1 increment is an intermediate stage in the progression to fully cavitated lesions.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)558-564
Number of pages7
JournalCommunity Dentistry and Oral Epidemiology
Issue number6
StatePublished - Dec 1 2013


  • access to care
  • adults
  • baseline data
  • coronal caries progression
  • predictors
  • reversals

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Dentistry(all)
  • Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health

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