Semiparametric zero-inflated modeling in multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis (MESA)

Hai Liu, Shuangge Ma, Richard Kronmal, Kung Sik Chan

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

4 Scopus citations


We analyze the Agatston score of coronary artery calcium (CAC) from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) using the semiparametric zero-inflated modeling approach, where the observed CAC scores from this cohort consist of high frequency of zeroes and continuously distributed positive values. Both partially constrained and unconstrained models are considered to investigate the underlying biological processes of CAC development from zero to positive, and from small amount to large amount. Different from existing studies, a model selection procedure based on likelihood cross-validation is adopted to identify the optimal model, which is justified by comparative Monte Carlo studies. A shrinkaged version of cubic regression spline is used for model estimation and variable selection simultaneously. When applying the proposed methods to the MESA data analysis, we show that the two biological mechanisms influencing the initiation of CAC and the magnitude of CAC when it is positive are better characterized by an unconstrained zero-inflated normal model. Our results are significantly different from those in published studies, and may provide further insights into the biological mechanisms underlying CAC development in humans. This highly flexible statistical framework can be applied to zero-inflated data analyses in other areas.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1236-1255
Number of pages20
JournalAnnals of Applied Statistics
Issue number3
StatePublished - Sep 2012


  • Cardiovascular disease
  • Coronary artery calcium
  • Likelihood cross-validation
  • Model selection
  • Penalized spline
  • Proportional constraint
  • Shrinkage

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty
  • Modeling and Simulation
  • Statistics and Probability

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