Testing for effects of climate change on competitive relationships and coexistence between two bird species

Nils Chr Stenseth, Joël M. Durant, Mike S. Fowler, Erik Matthysen, Frank Adriaensen, Niclas Jonzén, Kung Sik Chan, Hai Liu, Jenny De Laet, Ben C. Sheldon, Marcel E. Visser, André A. Dhondt

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

19 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Climate change is expected to have profound ecological effects, yet shifts in competitive abilities among species are rarely studied in this context. Blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) and great tits (Parus major) compete for food and roosting sites, yet coexist across much of their range. Climate change might thus change the competitive relationships and coexistence between these two species. Analysing four of the highest-quality, long-term datasets available on these species across Europe, we extend the textbook example of coexistence between competing species to include the dynamic effects of long-term climate variation. Using threshold time-series statistical modelling, we demonstrate that long-term climate variation affects species demography through different influences on density-dependent and density-independent processes. The competitive interaction between blue tits and great tits has shifted in one of the studied sites, creating conditions that alter the relative equilibrium densities between the two species, potentially disrupting longterm coexistence. Our analyses show that long-term climate change can, but does not always, generate local differences in the equilibrium conditions of spatially structured species assemblages. We demonstrate how long-term data can be used to better understand whether (and how), for instance, climate change might change the relationships between coexisting species. However, the studied populations are rather robust against competitive exclusion.

Original languageEnglish
Article number20141958
JournalProceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
Volume282
Issue number1807
DOIs
StatePublished - May 22 2015

Fingerprint

Climate Change
Birds
Climate change
Cyanistes caeruleus
coexistence
climate change
birds
Testing
Climate
testing
climate
Specific Gravity
Parus major
Textbooks
competitive exclusion
climate variation
demography
long term effects
Time series
time series analysis

Keywords

  • Climate variation
  • Coexistence and competitive exclusion
  • Intra- and interspecific competition
  • Statistical modelling
  • Threshold modelling

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)
  • Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
  • Environmental Science(all)
  • Immunology and Microbiology(all)
  • Medicine(all)

Cite this

Stenseth, N. C., Durant, J. M., Fowler, M. S., Matthysen, E., Adriaensen, F., Jonzén, N., ... Dhondt, A. A. (2015). Testing for effects of climate change on competitive relationships and coexistence between two bird species. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 282(1807), [20141958]. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2014.1958

Testing for effects of climate change on competitive relationships and coexistence between two bird species. / Stenseth, Nils Chr; Durant, Joël M.; Fowler, Mike S.; Matthysen, Erik; Adriaensen, Frank; Jonzén, Niclas; Chan, Kung Sik; Liu, Hai; De Laet, Jenny; Sheldon, Ben C.; Visser, Marcel E.; Dhondt, André A.

In: Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Vol. 282, No. 1807, 20141958, 22.05.2015.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Stenseth, NC, Durant, JM, Fowler, MS, Matthysen, E, Adriaensen, F, Jonzén, N, Chan, KS, Liu, H, De Laet, J, Sheldon, BC, Visser, ME & Dhondt, AA 2015, 'Testing for effects of climate change on competitive relationships and coexistence between two bird species', Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, vol. 282, no. 1807, 20141958. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2014.1958
Stenseth, Nils Chr ; Durant, Joël M. ; Fowler, Mike S. ; Matthysen, Erik ; Adriaensen, Frank ; Jonzén, Niclas ; Chan, Kung Sik ; Liu, Hai ; De Laet, Jenny ; Sheldon, Ben C. ; Visser, Marcel E. ; Dhondt, André A. / Testing for effects of climate change on competitive relationships and coexistence between two bird species. In: Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. 2015 ; Vol. 282, No. 1807.
@article{5f120eab82ef49ba9db50d38f8e3d51f,
title = "Testing for effects of climate change on competitive relationships and coexistence between two bird species",
abstract = "Climate change is expected to have profound ecological effects, yet shifts in competitive abilities among species are rarely studied in this context. Blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) and great tits (Parus major) compete for food and roosting sites, yet coexist across much of their range. Climate change might thus change the competitive relationships and coexistence between these two species. Analysing four of the highest-quality, long-term datasets available on these species across Europe, we extend the textbook example of coexistence between competing species to include the dynamic effects of long-term climate variation. Using threshold time-series statistical modelling, we demonstrate that long-term climate variation affects species demography through different influences on density-dependent and density-independent processes. The competitive interaction between blue tits and great tits has shifted in one of the studied sites, creating conditions that alter the relative equilibrium densities between the two species, potentially disrupting longterm coexistence. Our analyses show that long-term climate change can, but does not always, generate local differences in the equilibrium conditions of spatially structured species assemblages. We demonstrate how long-term data can be used to better understand whether (and how), for instance, climate change might change the relationships between coexisting species. However, the studied populations are rather robust against competitive exclusion.",
keywords = "Climate variation, Coexistence and competitive exclusion, Intra- and interspecific competition, Statistical modelling, Threshold modelling",
author = "Stenseth, {Nils Chr} and Durant, {Jo{\"e}l M.} and Fowler, {Mike S.} and Erik Matthysen and Frank Adriaensen and Niclas Jonz{\'e}n and Chan, {Kung Sik} and Hai Liu and {De Laet}, Jenny and Sheldon, {Ben C.} and Visser, {Marcel E.} and Dhondt, {Andr{\'e} A.}",
year = "2015",
month = "5",
day = "22",
doi = "10.1098/rspb.2014.1958",
language = "English",
volume = "282",
journal = "Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences",
issn = "0962-8436",
publisher = "Royal Society of London",
number = "1807",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Testing for effects of climate change on competitive relationships and coexistence between two bird species

AU - Stenseth, Nils Chr

AU - Durant, Joël M.

AU - Fowler, Mike S.

AU - Matthysen, Erik

AU - Adriaensen, Frank

AU - Jonzén, Niclas

AU - Chan, Kung Sik

AU - Liu, Hai

AU - De Laet, Jenny

AU - Sheldon, Ben C.

AU - Visser, Marcel E.

AU - Dhondt, André A.

PY - 2015/5/22

Y1 - 2015/5/22

N2 - Climate change is expected to have profound ecological effects, yet shifts in competitive abilities among species are rarely studied in this context. Blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) and great tits (Parus major) compete for food and roosting sites, yet coexist across much of their range. Climate change might thus change the competitive relationships and coexistence between these two species. Analysing four of the highest-quality, long-term datasets available on these species across Europe, we extend the textbook example of coexistence between competing species to include the dynamic effects of long-term climate variation. Using threshold time-series statistical modelling, we demonstrate that long-term climate variation affects species demography through different influences on density-dependent and density-independent processes. The competitive interaction between blue tits and great tits has shifted in one of the studied sites, creating conditions that alter the relative equilibrium densities between the two species, potentially disrupting longterm coexistence. Our analyses show that long-term climate change can, but does not always, generate local differences in the equilibrium conditions of spatially structured species assemblages. We demonstrate how long-term data can be used to better understand whether (and how), for instance, climate change might change the relationships between coexisting species. However, the studied populations are rather robust against competitive exclusion.

AB - Climate change is expected to have profound ecological effects, yet shifts in competitive abilities among species are rarely studied in this context. Blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) and great tits (Parus major) compete for food and roosting sites, yet coexist across much of their range. Climate change might thus change the competitive relationships and coexistence between these two species. Analysing four of the highest-quality, long-term datasets available on these species across Europe, we extend the textbook example of coexistence between competing species to include the dynamic effects of long-term climate variation. Using threshold time-series statistical modelling, we demonstrate that long-term climate variation affects species demography through different influences on density-dependent and density-independent processes. The competitive interaction between blue tits and great tits has shifted in one of the studied sites, creating conditions that alter the relative equilibrium densities between the two species, potentially disrupting longterm coexistence. Our analyses show that long-term climate change can, but does not always, generate local differences in the equilibrium conditions of spatially structured species assemblages. We demonstrate how long-term data can be used to better understand whether (and how), for instance, climate change might change the relationships between coexisting species. However, the studied populations are rather robust against competitive exclusion.

KW - Climate variation

KW - Coexistence and competitive exclusion

KW - Intra- and interspecific competition

KW - Statistical modelling

KW - Threshold modelling

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84928902754&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84928902754&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1098/rspb.2014.1958

DO - 10.1098/rspb.2014.1958

M3 - Article

VL - 282

JO - Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences

JF - Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences

SN - 0962-8436

IS - 1807

M1 - 20141958

ER -