Using previous trial results to inform hypothesis testing of new interventions

Changyu Shen, Xiaochun Li

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

1 Scopus citations


Results of industry-sponsored Phase III trials registered at include a rich amount of information on the efficacy of medical interventions. We propose that these results can be used to inform hypothesis testing of a new intervention through the Bayes principle. The posterior probability of positive efficacy offers an accessible interpretation of the uncertainty of efficacy and a convenient metric for global false-positive control.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)884-892
Number of pages9
JournalJournal of biopharmaceutical statistics
Issue number5
StatePublished - Sep 3 2018


  • Empirical Bayes
  • Phase III randomized trials
  • false positive
  • hypothesis testing
  • posterior probability

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Statistics and Probability
  • Pharmacology
  • Pharmacology (medical)

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